Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
