Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
